Or Nothing: How low can this market blow?

About 6 months ago, I once asked a smart manager and trader what he thought of the market. He laughed at the question because he had been shorting the markets cleverly for some time. He said, "You know what I think. That's not the question. The question is, do you want it fast or slow?"

It's early in the polls but the Jounal has a poll for how low will the markets go? 29% say below 5000 and 30% say 6000.

The acceptance of the markets breaking through the psychological barrier of 7000 was so odd. It was so dead fish, orderly. It's almost like there is a resignation by finance folk. Lots of statistics agree with this orderly sell off. Walking through the banker and trader packs having their smoke break in the late afternoon, it was a hudled mass just listening. What's usually fuck this trade, there was a stony silence. And the guys are smarter than your average banker. These are after all, the survivors of multiple job cuts. They know their job and there was no fear, no greed, no emotion at all. These brave warriors giving the stiff upper lip; I almost saluted them and wanted to thank them for their noble service to capitalism. Their endurance is admirable and anyone can understand their mental strain. With options being bought more and more for the next two years, people are prepared for the worst yet to come.

The result of the housing being weak is banks. Since we apparantly cannot face the truth about all our assets needing to drop in price, we try to solve the banks. Are the banks insolvent or illiquid? Insolvent, if youre a realist. So nationalize then? How do you nationalize just one bank? You can't; short selling GS sharks will go to the next pool of blood. How do you sell the assets? You can't; this country is broke and Americans will be damned to have another country buy our banks. I'm not going to lamant that these questions are not ones that can be answered easily. That's for a failure history professor who sucks and cannot make it in the real world. The answer is let's see what happens when you drop Citi and AIG and whoever else is weak out the window. If I were to fall out, gravity would not be called systematic risk. But it's a fools hope. Cronism is too strong.

Well, the big dogs opted for slooooooow.

Player: Whoa! Free Boat Ride For 3!

Get the fuck up! This boat is real!

Isn't it fantastic when it all comes together? Today, the deal gods loved me. Finished, count 'em, two deals in the same day. When I'm gooood, I am goooood. Just about better than cigar time (Montecristo obvi) with one of my team members, there was that relief of the invisible weight lifting. Whenever I get done with big work deadlines, that sense of freedom and accomplishment is like doing a fifth day of Goose.
So after this shit was donezo, how to rejoice? No simple celebration that any banker can enjoy would do. Well, let's see. Any team of analysts can pool their money for a VIP table (incidentally that is vacant of women). A Saturday round of golf is for the seniors. And drugs are simply for those M&A's that need to escape from the fact that they are not great, despite doing everything elitists tell them.
No I play like a champion. A weekend trip seemed logical. Vegas? I bet on sure things. Mexico? Eh, they may have another peso crisis while I'm there. To ski? I do enjoy it but adjusting to the altitude makes blacking out lame. Florida? 80 degrees with seasonal college girls waiting to meet someone with a job, let alone a multi-millionaire. Deal!
Calling one of my boys, he was down like syndrome. He called around and we almost immediately had an entourage. One of the guys we pulled into our caper can run sic game and is in the Navy. With my typical exceptional fortune, he happens to be a certified sea captain. Anyone can drive a fucking 40 foot tug boat, I'm talking about captaining one more in the 80-100 ft range. He's a good pickup. Please keep in mind this is all like 6:00 pm on a Thursday for this coming weekend. Anyway, after making the necessary expenditures (first class has got choice free booze for a pregame), it looks like a weekend with my boys in vacation mode on my buddy's boat in the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing my life lacks is Andy's nautical themed Pashmina Afghan. Enjoy your weekend, hope you find something comparable. I hear your kids want to see the Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience. Or your wife wants you to get your taxes done. Or there might be a good basketball game on...

Player: To Whom Much Is Given Much Is Tested

Senator Pat Geary: I despise the way you pose yourself. You and your whole fucking family.

Michael Corleone: We're both part of the same hypocrisy, senator...

It's always sweet when bankers are the ones who give the most money to campaigns for both political parties. Besides it being a commendable hedging strategy, the buying of every politician is such a delightfully incestuous game to me.

Game to run the universe goes something like this. Problem: Mr. Ty Hermes aka balla banker needs power. No one can imagine a smart guy like Ty who doesn't care about your feelings in office, because he can't even predict the stupid shit the American people will get fired up about next.


Few Examples:

• Refusing to have a flag on your suit lappel made you un-American? Ty just thought thats what the retail cretins and BAC employees have to do.
• Letting your VP candidate spend several thousand on clothes at luxurious 5th avenue? Ty doesn't understand. That bitch was hot. Good thing the press did not catch wind for the lingerie she bought for private banker fundraisers.
• Allowing Madoff, Stanford, and other managers that are asshole thieves be unregulated? Let Ty know when you have the minimum $1.5 mill. to be an investor in a fund like that. 'Til then, check to see if Vanguard can handle your $40,000 life savings. Mind your own businees, driver.

For these things, we bankers are called out of touch by the American people. The banker understands that with his intellegence and overall disdain for all the Joe the Plummers that he needs to find someone who can communicate with them. You know, someone 'you could have a beer with.' Essentially, someone who is as dumb as you are. The prez may talk a good game about helping 'people and not banks,' but get him in the smoking room for his real thoughts:



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOSXZY4qzYjs&refer=home





Thanks bud. But I do think he may be a little sore that he didn't go to the Firm and instead went to be a community organizer, so he may come after us...

Player: Ride The Volatility Wave!

I'm sorry I'm not sorry for putting up the pic below instead of an extreme surfing pic with monstrous waves.

I remember a conversation in the summer of '07 I had with an investor whom was one of the most successful I know (No small feat. Incidentally, I also respect him. I know, a rarity.) This time was when things were really starting to cook up in the markets with 300 point swings a day. I always valued his thoughts so I asked him, what do you think the markets are going to be like in the future? He replied, "Volatile!"

The investor then went on to say that big market moves of 300 points a day were not such a big deal since the DOW was around 13,500. He literally said this, "It's not like the DOW is at 7,000 or 8,000 like a few years ago, where hundreds of points days mean as much..."

Say what you will about the markets but like a stoned surfer, duuuuuude I love the big waves. The intensity and raw power of the storm has got the waves of volumes, like, radical. Granted this is like the surfer who goes out in a hurricane for swells, but I scream, "Righteous! Righteous!"

A lot of players have wiped out (bankrupt) or watch from the beach (pussies with gold treasuries. Can't say flight to quality without SELL!) or broken their legs (about to hahaha...wipe out...denananana....) so if you are lucky enough to be on your board, this can be lucrative and certainly most fun. Call me crazy but everyday since 2007 have been so action packed, my job is just fascinating. Every person has to know their shit better now in any financial role. Grab a surfboard and fuckin get at it!



This one is a no shit call from that one meathead trader (I actually do like their breed on the whole) from CNBC's Fast Money. As an aside, Fast Money is the only show worth a damn from CNBC; I just don't get why it's on at 5 (when everyone is still working) and midnight (when everyone is asleep or blacked out).



http://www.cnbc.com/id/29306709



In case you couldn't guess before, traders are buying calls on volatility (VIX). Fucking a, boys! Fortunes are being made and lost as stocks fluctuate 20% in two days. And whenever captains of the universe Pandit and Lewis say shit like:


"We see no reason why a bank like ours should be nationalized...there's no reason why a company that is profitable with strong levels of capital and liquidity should be considered for nationalization...speculation about nationalization is based on a lack of understanding."

The world's most powerful people, the CEO's and Presidents, cannot control these unforgiving swells. I gave up on their credibility and I'm not the only one. Control is an illusion.



I like to remind myself how much more significant and how much more accepting we are of these big volume days when a market was 14,000 not too long ago. So I do my best in my job/in my investments and raise my hands on the roller coaster. It's probably a death wish but I think the waves of the financial tsunami are awesome duuuuuude.

Nothing: Sign of the Times

From the Journal on Dubai losing a lot of real estate value and other problems:

"Los Angeles Times columnist Rosa Brooks shed no tears that "Dubai may be going down," finding it "hard not to be revolted" by a state that "doesn't really produce anything of value" but is a playground for "cold-eyed Russian oligarchs, coked-out London pop stars and the spoiled princelings of global finance." "

I particuliarly was fond of the 'spoiled princelings of global finance' phrase. I'd be jealous too if I was needing my monthly salary to pay off a mortgage. Not too worried. Self-interest is an unstoppable force and global wealth, the result, cannot be hindered forever.

I hear it's a good time to buy in the Hamptons now.

Nothing: The Capitalist's N Word

WOULD YOU RATHER BE

OR

Permit me to demonstrate the horrors of bank nationalization through a contrast of myself and this tool I recently met.



I went to a black tie benefit event the other night and those charities always make me quite reflective. My prevailing thought was not how I could help the kids but how I would bang 90% of the chicks there. I also remember drunkenly looking up at the room's massive chandeliers, and reflecting about people who could not afford the event (there were probably some in the room with me).



The event itself was a bachelor / bachelorette auction and I enjoyed it immensely. Nothing like bidding on luxurious vacation packages that include dates with these beautiful women. I did not buy myself one though. It's like my grandma said, 'Why buy the cow, when you get the sex for free?' I met a nice blonde bimbo (hot pink dress and tan) and got inside of her in a conference room near the event. Easy as arbitrage! I'm not telling you this to impress you (though I can't help but be proud of it); I'm telling you this to establish the contrast in this story.



Anyway, after texting my boys about the big W and washing my hands, the event was winding down. I texted back these two girls (I'm waiting for the opportune moment to ask for a threesome) to see whaddup. (I love naive women, one had originally texted, "Stop passing out ur business cards at charity functions & come drink w/ us!!") Ladies were already at "Dorsia" for drinks. Though it was about midnight on a weekend and "Dorsia" was, well, "Dorsia," I strolled past the winding and unmoving line. Fortunately, the ladies sent down some dude to help me get inside instantly. Beats paying a cover and standing in the cold. They were glowing when they saw me, do you think it was the pimp 3 piece suit?



Then I met this tool, who was with one of my girls. This broad, she just broke up with her LDR BF of several years and I think this guy is her rebound. First of all, this guy was short. If history teaches us anything, it's that short people suck. Look at Napoleon. That fucker had to conquer most of Europe to get people to like him. And I figure people still didn't like Napoleon that much at the end of the day. I wish I could describe him more, regrettably he had no real personality or memorable traits besides how much he sucked. Get this. Turns out he's a trader at BAC. Christ, no wonder that bitch is insolvent. I told the future threesome girl #2 loudly that I had heard that BAC has height requirements for their traders. He definitely overheard me. And her response shook me to the core. She says, "But he's so baller!" I laughed loudly at this and would have loved to delve more into it with her but 'Livin on a Prayer' came on. Grabbed future threesome girl #1 and my Cape Cod to head to the dance floor. The opportunity cost was too great to talk sense with girl #2.

I think the reason I was so surprised by this statement of idiocy was the word choice. Baller??? Many words come to mind with this guy such as wimp or loser. But baller is the least likely word I would choose. I understand she's rebounding but no need to go slumming, she's a pretty girl with what seemed like decent judgment. Then I realized it. Just as some people think a farm boy from upstate New York is remarkable, others also believe nationalizing is baller. Cool, we can have these fucking lame government bankers with government salaries! Am I the only one who noticed FDR was literally too lame to stand? I'm pretty confident nationalization is going to happen since it's the easiest thing to do for the government. I remember the glory days where things that failed got eliminated. If you feel something needs to be done, loans to profitable banks maybe works.

I'm concerned that I caught a glimpse of these future baller government bankers through meeting this guy. Again, I should probably stress the contrast between the two of us. There is myself, the cutthroat banker wearing a three piece suit, Italian knit shirt, Kanye West glasses, and Vineyard Vines tie who just got his from some slut at a charity. Then there is this guy, who had no real muscle tone under his tan Gap sweater. His lack of intellect surely fits in well with the other meathead traders on his floor. It just worries me that bankers will have a real dip in quality and gives us all a bad name with nationalization. With further government intervention, women will completely not be able to judge bankers' ballerness correctly. Ultimately, there is one positive thing that can come of this. Though bankers will have to endure more tools like this guy in our bars, we know where we stand against them. With this nationalization, we get another layer in the finance hierarchy. I just have not decided which job is lower, government banker or bank teller...

Player: International Playboys (obvi!)

"That's a fair thought to lie between maid's legs"

-Billy Shakespeare-

After talking to my boss (dont worry he's a rainmaker and we do team payouts) and watching other big boy bankers in our building, they seem...well, stressed. Don't get me wrong, what the fuck do you expect guy? I'm certainly not advocating anyone being a gapping vagina. The late hours are when deals are gloriously made. It's the miracle of economic life created by a banker and an Excel sheet (who love each other very much...). For the rated R version, the deal is the (sometimes unwanted) product of a one night stand. With Red Bull as the liquid to help your vision, the banker has to assert his dominance on Excel, an object that will do whatever he wants. Granted you have to know which buttons to push; let's be real if you use a mouse that’s like not being able to unsnap the bra. And if you stay late and know you made a deal that looks good, you feel like you just got off and all you want to do is go to sleep. I hope you know what I mean if you have done it. But like I said, this wave of stress is unusual. The cause is certainly obvious. My rainmaker manager says he is 'nauseous' looking at economic information, others are fighting for their jobs. OK, so a lot of banks hit their 52 week low today. Mine included.

Nevertheless, besides the usual wear and tear, I feel calm about this meltdown. I know where I'm at financially and in life (my resume is top-notch). If this thing goes to the shit house, I would be excited to pursue another title that I simply must achieve before I'm dead and gone: International Playboy. The hurdles are numerous. There's a lot of training required, the game never lets up, and the associated swagga just cannot fade. But it's been a dream of mine since seeing my first boobies on the silver screen. In retrospect, that red head on Titanic really needed to tighten a bit, but for my impressionable eyes, it was enough to spark the fire. Now listen, I know what you're thinking and I appreciate your sentiments. Your like dude, you already are very secure in slaying the hoes with a job in finance in addition to your enigmatic background, personality, etc. Why give up what you have? Certainly, it's not without risk. Concerning International Playboys, we all can't be Mr. Hefner. Just look at Larry Flynt (I am not even going to bother checking the spelling for that trashy perv's name. The Hustler mag guy. Enough on such disturbing items.)

The pitfalls are out there but I understand them. A womanizer attempting to be an International Playboy like Jack Nicholson can be perceived as sleazy and end up like Colin Farrell. Membership in the International Playboy club can be questioned when you get blown by Monika Lewinsky as opposed to Marylyn Monroe (To be fair Bill, there are no Republicans even being considered in the I.P. Hall of Fame. I humbly wish to be the first). The other major pitfall by being around and tapping pussy all the time is you lose your masculinity. You cannot tell me that pretty Tom Brady in all his photo shoots and man-purses is an unquestioned International Playboy. He needed to knock up that model to make the other Pats feel comfortable in the showers. And no settling down. I don't care if you are tapping Angelina or Beyonce, you lose your masculinity. Straight up. All the pussy on the side will not stop the constant fear of getting caught. Playas can't sweat that swagga.

Here's the deal. To be on top of the womanizing world, you need three things:

1. Some sort of claim to fame. You need a reason to convince people you are the man (bankers have disposition to do this already). If it's crooning like JT, charming like hedgie Arpad Busson, or pretending like Clooney, the International Playboy needs a unique identity.

2. Fool dozens to hundreds of top-shelf women into sleeping with you. This one seems intuitive but peel this onion of wisdom. There are hundreds of horny assholes around hot women whenever they go out, go to work, go eat. The International Playboy is able to fool women into thinking we not only listen but actually care about what is coming out of their prattling mouths. The smartest thing ever said about scoring was from a woman of all creatures. International Playboy Warren Beatty's sister, Shirley MacLaine, said about Warren, "He was able to make women fall in love with themselves."

That's it. The I.P. is great but is greater because he thinks you are great too! You dumb slut.

3. Pride. It's important for the world to know that you score pretty much every half hour. Girls respect that kind of honesty. Enjoy the life! That's my roadmap to success.